Summary

• An analyst predicts that the Switch 2 will sell 4.3 million units in the US in 2025, assuming it launches within the first half of the year.
• The analyst believes the Switch 2 will perform strongly, but the PS5 may lead in US console sales.
• High anticipation surrounds the Nintendo Switch 2, yet its success could hinge on launch timing, hardware quality, and the competitiveness of its game lineup.

Gaming analyst Mat Piscatella forecasts that the Nintendo Switch 2 will sell approximately 4.3 million units in the US in 2025. This prediction assumes a launch in the first half of the year. For comparison, by the end of 2017, the original Nintendo Switch had sold 4.8 million units, exceeding the company's initial expectations. To meet the high demand, Nintendo had to fly in additional units. Fans are hopeful that Nintendo has better anticipated demand this time around and planned accordingly.

Gamers eagerly await the announcement of Nintendo's next system. The Switch 2 frequently trends on social media, fueled by anticipation for its reveal. However, this buzz may not directly translate into sales. Several factors will influence the Switch 2's performance in 2025, including its launch timing and the quality and appeal of its game lineup.

Circana video game analyst Mat Piscatella expects the Nintendo Switch 2 to sell 4.3 million units in the US in 2025, provided it launches in the first half of the year. Many anticipate a launch by April 2025, just before summer, which could boost sales during Japan's Golden Week holiday and other seasonal festivities worldwide.

Analyst Predicts 4.3M Switch 2 Sales in 2025

Seeing as how an announcement appears to be coming soon (but who knows) - I have Nintendo's next hardware device selling 4.3 million units in the US in 2025 (assuming 1H launch), accounting for approximately 1/3rd of all video game console hardware units sold in the year (excluding PC Portables).— Mat Piscatella (@matpiscatella.bsky.social) 2025-01-08T16:09:43.754Z

Piscatella further elaborates that in the United States, the Switch 2 is expected to account for one-third of all video game hardware unit sales, excluding portable PC devices like the Steam Deck or ROG Ally. He anticipates potential supply constraints for the Switch 2 due to high initial demand, though it's unclear how much manufacturing capacity Nintendo has allocated. It's possible that Nintendo has stockpiled resources to avoid a repeat of the supply issues faced with the original Switch and the PS5.

While Piscatella believes the Switch 2 will perform well, he predicts that the PlayStation 5 will maintain its lead in US game console hardware sales. The Switch 2 enjoys significant hype, which could boost its sales. However, the PS5 is set to launch several highly anticipated titles in 2025, including Grand Theft Auto 6, which is expected to be a major system-seller and may not be available on Nintendo platforms. Despite this, the Switch 2's success could still lead the market if its hardware impresses and its launch lineup is compelling.